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More Accurate Hurricane Predictions

Atmospheric Scientists' Model Predicts Hurricane Threat Months in Advance

August 1, 2008

Meteorologists can make long range predictions about hurricane activity months in advance using what they call the Atlantic Meridional Mode. It is the relationship between sea surface temperature, wind speed and direction, and the amount of moisture in the atmosphere. Researchers can make a forecast based on winter conditions. A negative rating translates to a quieter hurricane season.

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ABOUT HURRICANES: A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, a low-pressure system that usually forms in the tropics and has winds that circulate counterclockwise near the earth's surface. Storms are considered hurricanes when their wind speeds surpass 74 MPH. Every hurricane arises from the combination of warm water and moist warm air. Tropical thunderstorms drift out over warm ocean waters and encounter winds coming in from near the equator. Warm, moist air from the ocean surface rises rapidly, encounters cooler air, and condensed into water vapor to form storm clouds, releasing heat in the process. This heat causes the condensation process to continue, so that more and more warm moist air is drawn into the developing storm, creating a wind pattern that spirals around the relatively calm center, or eye, of the storm, much like water swirling down a drain. The winds keep circling and accelerating to form a classic cyclone pattern.

RATING HURRICANES: Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. They are rated from lowest wind speeds (Category 1) to highest (Category 5). But even lower category storms can cause a great deal of damage, mostly from storm surges ý when water is pushed towards the show by strong winds and combines with normal tides to create hurricane storm tides ý and the resulting flooding. The worst devastation from hurricane Katrina, for example, occurred when flooding caused the New Orleans levees to fail.

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE: If it seems like hurricanes are becoming more frequent and severe, that's because they are, thanks to rising air and water temperatures around the world, which make it easier for hurricanes to form. Some scientists attribute this to global warming and human activity, such as deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions. Others think that it is due to natural changes deep in the Atlantic, part of a natural cycle that shifts every 40-60 years.

The American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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To Go Inside This Science:
James P. Kossin, Ph.D.
University of Wisconsin-Madison
Madison, WI 53706 USA
608.265.5356
kossin@ssec.wisc.edu

American Geophysical Union
Washington, DC 20009-1277
1-800-966-2481

American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
617-227-2425