Tornado Safety: Predicting Disasters

Research Meteorologists Learn Dry Autumns and Winters Lead to Fewer Tornadoes in Spring in the Southeastern US

April 1, 2010

Research meteorologists discovered that in the Southeastern US, fewer tornadoes occur in the spring following fall and winter droughts. An analysis of 50 years of data showed below normal tornado days occurring after fall and winter seasons with precipitation less than 85 percent of the 30 year average. Scientists could use this connection to predict the activity level of an upcoming tornado season in the southeastern states- above or below normal- similar to the forecast of hurricane season.

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ABOUT TORNADOES: A tornado begins with a thunderstorm cloud, which can build up a lot of energy. If this energy creates a particularly strong updraft of air, it will form a vortex, much like how a whirlpool forms in a draining bathtub. The air is pulled toward the center in a spiral, forming a tornado under the thundercloud. Wind speeds can reach 200 to 300 MPH, and if the dangling vortex touches ground, the combination of the whirling wind's speed, the updraft, and pressure differences can cause severe damage. The path of a tornado is determined by the path of the parent thundercloud, but it will often appear to hop (called a "jumper"). This occurs when the vortex is disturbed, causing it to collapse momentarily and reform.

HOW A DROUGHT COMES ABOUT: Drought doesn't have a single cause; rather, it happens as several contributing factors converge all at once. But the most immediate cause is high atmospheric pressure. When the air sinks, producing high pressure, this keeps clouds from forming, so there is less humidity and therefore less rainfall. This is often seasonal in many regions of the world, but the Sahara and Kalahari deserts in Africa, and Asia's Gobi desert, for example, experience high pressure for most of the year. How long a drought lasts depends on how the air and sea interact to transfer moisture to the air, and how much moisture the soil retains in a given region, among other factors.

The American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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On the Web: Droughts, Tornadoes and Microclimates, oh my

To Go Inside This Science:
Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd
Associate Professor and Research Meteorologist
University of Georgia
Athens, Georgia 30602
marshgeo@uga.edu

American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
617-227-2425

Peter Weiss
American Geophysical Union
Washington, DC 20009-1277
pweiss@agu.org
1-800-966-2481

AGU is a worldwide scientific community that advances, through unselfish cooperation in research, the understanding of Earth and space for the benefit of humanity.