Hurricanes: Predicting The Strength Of The Storm

Meteorologists Predict Hurricane Storm Surge Sooner with New Storm Pattern Identification

November 1, 2011

Meteorologists have identified a special pattern in the development of a hurricane that helps predict sudden surges in storm strength. A series of special satellite images revealed the pattern as a symmetrical ring of storm clouds around the center of the storm. This ring gets more clearly defined as the intensity increases, developing into a hurricane. The new prediction method can help give forecasters approximately a 30-minute lead-time before the storm reaches maximum strength.

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ABOUT HURRICANES: A hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone, a low-pressure system that usually forms in the tropics and has winds that circulate counterclockwise near the Earth's surface. Storms are considered hurricanes when their wind speeds surpass 74 MPH. Every hurricane arises from the combination of warm water and moist warm air. Tropical thunderstorms drift out over warm ocean waters and encounter winds coming in from near the equator. Warm, moist air from the ocean surface rises rapidly, encounters cooler air, and condenses into water vapor to form storm clouds, releasing heat in the process. This heat causes the condensation process to continue, so that more and more warm moist air is drawn into the developing storm, creating a wind pattern that spirals around the relatively calm center, or eye, of the storm, much like water swirling down a drain. The winds keep circling and accelerating to form a classic cyclone pattern.

RATING HURRICANES: Hurricanes are categorized by the strength of their winds according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane scale. They are rated from lowest wind speeds (Category 1) to highest (Category 5). But even lower-category storms can cause a great deal of damage, mostly from storm surges, when water is pushed towards the shore by strong winds and combines with normal tides to create hurricane storm tides and flooding. The worst devastation from hurricane Katrina, for example, occurred when flooding caused the New Orleans levees to fail.

The American Geophysical Union and American Meteorological Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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Ring Around the Hurricane: Satellites Can Predict Storm Intensity

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Stephen Nesbitt
Assistant Professor
Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences
University of Illinois

Peter Weiss
American Geophysical Union
202-777-7507

American Meteorological Society
617-227-2425

 

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