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Predicting a Pandemic

Operations Researchers Predict Path of Pandemics

August 1, 2008

Using math and computer science, engineers created a model to forecast the progression of a future pandemic. They looked at the way diseases spread to new people and over distances in order to prepare for future emergencies. The model allows researchers to design the best way to distribute food and vaccines to those in need, as well as the optimum locations and staffing for clinics that would respond.

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WHAT IS THE FLU: The flu is caused by the influenza virus, which targets the respiratory tract by binding to the surface of cells. Then the virus releases its genetic information (RNA) into the cell's nucleus to replicate itself. When the cell dies, those copies are released into the body, infecting other cells. Flu symptoms are unpleasant, but usually not life-threatening by themselves. However, the flu weakens the immune system, making the body vulnerable to more serious infections, such as pneumonia.

PANDEMIC PANIC: Being able to determine the specific influenza strain in a sample may help world health officials combat future flu epidemics and pandemics. Strain identification is critical for tracking emerging strains and determining which flu strains are most likely to infect the population the following year in order to develop annual preventive vaccines. Historically, flu pandemics occur when a new strain of the flu virus emerges that is particularly contagious. They can cause millions of deaths worldwide, ranking a flu pandemic among the top four global risks listed by the World Economic Forum.

The American Industrial Hygiene Association, the American Mathematical Society, the Mathematical Association of America, the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, and the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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To Go Inside This Science:
Barbara Christopher
Director of ISyE Communications, Georgia Institute of Technology
Atlanta, GA 30332-0205
404-385-3102 (phone)
Barbara.christopher@isye.gatech.edu

Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Santa Monica, CA 90406
310-394-1811

American Industrial Hygiene Association
Melissa Hurley
(703) 846-0740

American Mathematical Society
Providence, RI 02904-2294
1-800-321-4267

Mathematical Association of America
Washington, DC 20036-1358
1-800-741-9415

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences ý
Barry List
443-757-3560
barry.list@informs.org