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Tracking The Flu

Engineers and Computer Scientists Predict the Spread of a Flu Pandemic with New Tool

January 1, 2010

Engineers and computer scientists designed a tool to track the spread of a flu pandemic, comparing scenarios with and without the influence of antiviral drugs and social distancing measures. The tool uses data from the 1918 flu pandemic to simulate the daily spread over a two-month period across an entire state. The simulation demonstrates how specific measures would affect the availability of hospital beds, the percentage of people who contract the flu and number of deaths.

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Science Insider

WHAT IS A VIRUS? Unlike bacteria, viruses are not cells; they consist of DNA or RNA molecules, containing the virus's genes, surrounded by a protein coat. A virus can attach itself to cells and inject molecules into the cell, or the cell may absorb it. Once inside, the molecules cause the infected cell to make new viruses that can spread to other cells.

PANDEMIC PANIC: Planning to combat an influenza pandemic can be difficult. Identifying the strain of the disease, as well as determining its ability to spread and infect the population is a key to suppressing the pandemic. Also important is determining the effect of social distancing efforts, such as school closings and other guidelines that would decrease social interaction. Modeling different scenarios can allow scientists to understand the impact of a pandemic and take actions that may save lives.

The Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.-USA, and the Biophysical Society contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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Pandemic Response

To Go Inside This Science:
Dr. David S. Ebert
School of Electrical and Computer Engineering
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN 47907
ebertd@purdue.edu

Lois Smith
Human Factors and Ergonomics Society
Santa Monica, CA 90406
lois@hfes.org
310-394-1811

Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences
Barry List
443-757-3560
barry.list@informs.org

Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc.
IEEE
IEEE-USA
Pender McCarter
p.mccarter@ieee.org

Ellen Weiss
Director of Policy Communications
Biophysical Society
eweiss@biophysics.org
301-634-7176