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Hurricanes and A New El Niņo: Modoki

Climatologists Discover New Type of El Nino May Cause More Hurricanes Closer to the Coast, But Also Provide More Advanced Warning

April 1, 2010

Climatologists found that a new type of El Nino called El Nino Modoki may cause a greater number of hurricanes with a greater chance of them making landfall. A typical El Nino forms in the Eastern Pacific Ocean and usually reduces the number of hurricanes in a season, but this new El Nino forms in the Central Pacific and generates more hurricanes that form closer to the coast. El Nino Modoki has at least one advantage because the conditions that indicate its formation can be seen months before hurricane season starts , providing more advanced warning to the kind of hurricane season ahead .

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ABOUT EL NINO: El Niņo is a cyclical warming of the ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that generally occurs every three to seven years, usually around the end of the calendar year. It is associated with changes in air pressure and the movement of high-level winds, and can affect weather worldwide. In the United States, El Niņo normally results in warmer-than-normal temperatures across the northern and western states. Wetter conditions result in the south, with dry weather across the Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest. El Niņo typically peaks during the winter months. It alternates with La Niņa, the cooling of ocean waters in the same region of the Pacific.

WHY THIS EL NINO IS DIFFERENT: The newly-recognized version of the phenomenon is called El Niņo Modoki (from the Japanese word meaning "similar, but different"). Instead of forming in the Eastern Pacific, it forms toward the center of the ocean, which affects ocean circulation and weather patterns and may lead to higher frequency of strong hurricanes in North America.

RATING HURRICANES: Hurricanes are categorized according to the strength of their winds according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. They are rated from a Category 1 with winds between 74 and 95mph to a Category 5 with winds over 155mph. But even lower category storms can cause a great deal of damage, mostly from storm surges and the resulting flooding. The worst devastation from hurricane Katrina, for example, occurred when flooding caused the New Orleans levees to fail.

The American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union contributed to the information contained in the TV portion of this report.

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On the Web: New Type of El Nino

To Go Inside This Science:
Peter Webster
peter.webster@eas.gatech.edu
404.894.1748

American Meteorological Society
Boston, MA 02108-3693
617-227-2425

Peter Weiss
American Geophysical Union
Washington, DC 20009-1277
pweiss@agu.org
1-800-966-2481


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