Echoing a National Academy of Sciences report from last year, the
Administration's new "U.S. Climate Action Report - 2002" states
that "Greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere as
a result of human activities, causing global mean surface air
temperature and subsurface ocean temperature to rise." It
continues, "While the changes observed over the last several
decades are likely due mostly to human activities, we cannot rule
out that some significant part is also a reflection of natural
variability." If the effects of President Bush's February 2002
climate change initiative are not taken into account, the Climate
Action Report also finds that "total U.S. greenhouse gas
emissions are projected to increase by 43 percent between 2000
and 2020," although emissions per unit GDP are expected to
decline.
Prepared by the Environmental Protection Agency and submitted to
the United Nations, the Climate Action Report reviews the
policies already in place and the Bush Administration's proposals
for dealing with climate change, including those in the National
Energy Policy. Chapters of the report also look at the nation's
climate, geography and population, trends in greenhouse gas
emissions and projections of future emissions, potential
consequences and possible adaptations, ongoing research, and
technologies and financial resources to address climate change.
Last year, after release of the National Academy report,
President Bush acknowledged that "the surface temperature of the
earth is warming," and that the Academy's findings "indicate
that
the increase is due in large part to human activity." Yet he
cautioned that the effects of natural climate fluctuations are
unknown, and "no one can say with any certainty what constitutes
a dangerous level of warming, and therefore what level must be
avoided."
Assuming that continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions would
lead to an average temperature rise in the contiguous United
States of 3 - 5 degrees C during this century, the new Climate
Action Report takes a comprehensive look at how continued warming
might impact - both positively and negatively - various regions
of the country. It finds that "A few ecosystems, such as alpine
meadows in the Rocky Mountains and some barrier islands, are
likely to disappear entirely in some areas. Other ecosystems,
such as southeastern forests, are likely to experience major
species shifts or break up into a mosaic of grasslands,
woodlands, and forests. Some of the goods and services lost
through the disappearance or fragmentation of natural ecosystems
are likely to be costly or impossible to replace." Among other
findings, "Climate change and the resulting rise in sea level are
likely to exacerbate threats to buildings, roads, power lines,
and other infrastructure in climate-sensitive areas. For
example, infrastructure damage is expected to result from
permafrost melting in Alaska and from sea level rise and storm
surges in low-lying coastal areas."
Bush's plans to address climate change, the report says, include
"a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas intensity in the United
States by 18 percent over the next decade through a combination
of voluntary, incentive-based, and existing mandatory measures.
This represents a 4.5 percent reduction from forecast emissions
in 2012, a serious, sensible, and science-based response to this
global problem." Proposed new measures include enhancing the
emission reduction registry, creating transferable emission
reduction credits, providing tax incentives for investing in low-
emission equipment, establishing emission reduction agreements
with particular industry sectors, supporting R&D on energy
efficiency and sequestration technologies, and working with other
countries. The Administration would review its progress in 2012
"to determine if additional steps may be needed."
In his speech last year, Bush referred to the Kyoto Protocol as
"fatally flawed." The new Climate Action Report continues
this
opposition to the Kyoto agreement. According to the report, the
Administration's climate change strategies "are expected to
achieve emission reductions comparable to the average reductions
prescribed by the Kyoto agreement, but without the threats to
economic growth that rigid national emission limits would bring."
The report states, "we seek an environmentally sound approach
that will not harm the U.S. economy.... In the real world, no
one will forego meeting basic family needs to protect the global
commons."
The"U.S. Climate Action Report - 2002: Third National Communication
of the United States of America Under the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change," which runs approximately 250 pages including
appendices, is available for reading online at http://www.epa.gov/globalwarming/publications/car/index.html.
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