Synchronization of Extinction

A new study of animal populations shows that even widely separated populations of a single species will go extinct together if a common external force is applied. Take the analogy of two grandfather clocks falling into synchrony through subtle vibrations in the floorboards linking the two clocks. In the same way a common stimulant, in the form, say, of predators or adverse climate conditions, can synchronize the fate of separate enclaves of an endangered species.

R.E. Amritkar of the Physical Research Laboratory, in Ahmedabad, India, and Govindan Rangarajan of the Indian Institute of Science, in Bangalore, began with actual field data that had demonstrated the synchronizing influence of predators on vole populations and then applied principles from nonlinear dynamics to simulate future behavior. They conclude that provided there is a common threat, separated communities of the species will synchronize together before becoming extinct.

This is bad news for conservationists hoping that some decimated species could survive in isolation. They show that the net resistance to extinction can be expressed as a parameter which puts the degree of endangeredness into numerical form.

This theory can help explain why species got decimated on a global scale in previous mass extinction events.

Physical Review Letters, upcoming article
Contact Govindan Rangarajan, rangaraj@math.iisc.ernet.in, 91-80-23600373
Govindan Rangarajan's Web site