Downsizing the Government: Outlook for Federal Science Program Funding

The House of Representatives and the Senate gave final approval yesterday to a seven year budget resolution which will dramatically trim federal spending on science and technology. Speaking in support of the budget resolution designed to eliminate the federal deficit by 2002, Rep. Robert S. Walker (R-PA) proclaimed, “We have proven the naysayers wrong. We have followed through on our promises.”

This budget resolution is a fiscal blueprint to guide federal taxing and spending over the next seven years. It does not have to be signed by the president, and does not determine specific program spending, which is determined by authorization and appropriations legislation. These bills must be signed by the president, and a White House spokesman has already predicted “a long, hot summer” as Washington moves towards the start of the new fiscal year on October 1.

For fiscal year 1996, the thirteen appropriations bills now working their way through Congress are the bills to watch. However, the budget resolution approved yesterday gives a good indication of how Congress intends to fund science and technology programs during the next seven years. These programs are a component of non-defense discretionary spending (i.e., spending which is directly controlled by the annual appropriations process.) The budget resolution calls for $190 billion in savings in non-defense discretionary spending over seven years, as compared to a freeze in current spending.

The American Association for the Advancement of Science has prepared figures suggesting what future science spending may be under the budget resolution. In a chart entitled, “Projected Effects of House Budget Resolution on Nondefense R&D” the AAAS adjusted their figures to show constant 1995 dollars for comparison purposes. There are a number of important caveats to these figures. AAAS stresses that these are preliminary estimates. These figures are also based on the House version of the budget resolution, which is somewhat different from the final version that was approved yesterday by the House and Senate. AAAS made a number of assumptions in their calculations. Finally, Congress can change these figures at any point in the future. Our thanks to the AAAS for their preparation of these figures, and their permission to use them.

The below selected figures compare current R&D spending with projected spending in FY 2002. They are expressed in FY 1995 dollars adjusted for inflation largely using deflators from the Office of Management and Budget.

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION:
Total NSF R&D declines by 20.7%
Research and Related Activity declines by 10.1%
Academic Research Infrastructure declines by 67.8%
Major Research Equipment declines by 100.0%
Education and Human Resources declines by 20.3%

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY:
Total DOE nondefense R&D declines by 47.4%
General Science declines by 26.3%
Energy Supply R&D declines by 47.8%

NASA: Total NASA R&D declines by 38.0%
NASA SAT [science, aeronautics, and technology] Space R&D declines by 37.3%
NASA Human Space Flight declines by 37.2%
NASA Mission Support declines by 21.4%

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE:
Total Commerce R&D declines by 50%
NIST Advanced Technology Program declines by 100%
NIST Construction declines by 0.9%
NIST [intramural] Scientific and Technical Research and Services increases 1.0%