The Home Stretch

It is less than four weeks to the start of FY 1999, and not one of the thirteen appropriations bills funding the operations of the federal government has been sent to the President. As Congress starts on the home stretch to the start of the new fiscal year, and the November elections, the relaxed atmosphere which has enveloped the Capitol this year will change. These are the bills that must be passed.

Both the House and Senate have passed versions of the four appropriations bills tracked in FYI: Commerce, Justice, State; Defense; Energy and Water Development; and Veterans Affairs, HUD, and Independent Agencies. In spite of very tight spending constraints, these bills have generally been favorable toward R&D. A recently released analysis by the American Association for the Advancement of Science concludes that “So far, R&D has emerged as a high priority for both the House and Senate” (full details at http://www.aaas.org/spp/dspp/rd/rdwwwpg.htm ). As usual, there are both winners and losers for the various R&D agencies in the eight versions of the bills.

Expect considerable fireworks between the Congress and the White House as we move nearer to the start of the fiscal year. Activists in both parties want to use the appropriations bills to legislate and to stake out positions for the November elections. President Clinton has talked about vetoing more than half of the bills because Congress wants to cut programs that are important to him. The VA, HUD bill funding NSF and NASA is troubled because of language on public housing and the Kyoto global warming treaty. That should be resolved. Of much more concern is the Commerce, Justice, State bill -- for the same reason as last year’s dispute: the proposed use of sampling in the upcoming census.

These fireworks are not expected to turn into the open warfare that resulted in the closure of the federal government a few years ago. Congressional Republicans are still hurting from that episode, and their leaders are rejecting any strategy calling for a shutdown. House Appropriations Chairman Bob Livingston (R-LA) recently said, “When the time comes, they’ll sit down and talk with us and we’ll pass bills that satisfy them.”

A short-term solution to any appropriations impasse will be the tried-and-true continuing resolution. This legislation, which is likely to contain at least three, and as many as six appropriations bills, will generally continue spending at the current level. A “CR” will enable Members to get out of town to devote their full energy to campaigning. Getting a CR passed can be contentious, and it is unknown how long it would be in effect.

An interesting issue to watch is whether Congress and the Administration will find a way to break the budget caps. On one hand, the federal government has a surplus. On the other, budget conservatives still seek to drive down spending, regardless of revenues. Some of the most influential Republicans in the House and Senate are trying to find a way to evade the caps to spend more money on popular programs. Extra money may be the only way to fund some of the programs the White House is most interested in.

The figures in these appropriations bills are still in flux until the President signs them. While the outlook is generally promising for R&D, the adage, “it’s not over until its over” remains true.