How high-resolution climate models can help guide future infrastructure planning

As the world moves toward renewable energy systems, high-resolution climate datasets are needed to plan and ensure energy supply can meet expected increases in future demand. Arthur et al. discussed the close collaboration this requires between climate scientists and energy infrastructure experts to build a unified climate and energy system model.

“Building such a model would force people on both sides to ‘speak the same language’ and, similarly, to ensure variables are translated correctly between the climate and energy systems,” said author Robert Arthur.

Thanks to advancements in computing, global climate models have grown in resolution, approaching typically finer-scale — but shorter-term — weather forecast models. But before such high-resolution climate projections can be applied, they must be validated for local predictions of energy-relevant variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind, solar radiation, and cloud coverage. Scientists can then predict effects on the energy system decades into the future to ensure planned infrastructure can suitably respond to potential climate scenarios.

“For example, how are new renewables deployments considered in a low-emission versus high-emission climate scenario?” said Arthur. “Or how are emerging energy technologies represented in the future grid?”

A unified model, like the one the authors proposed, will be an important tool to ensure future grid reliability and energy security.

“The prospect of using storyline simulations to ‘stress test’ the future electrical grid during highly impactful events — for example, heat waves, cold snaps, and severe storms — is really exciting to me,” said Arthur. “This type of study will require both high-resolution representation of the weather event itself, as well as asset-specific representation of the energy system.”

Source: “High-resolution climate model datasets for energy infrastructure planning in a renewable-dependent future,” by Robert S. Arthur, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Hsiang-He Lee, Jessica Wert, Matthew Signorotti, and Jean-Paul Watson, Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy (2025). The article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0254086 .