CRS Analyzes Federal Big Science Projects
In response to a request by the House science committee, the Congressional Research Service (CRS) analyzed 30 federally-funded scientific mega-projects begun within the past 15 years. The 40-page report, entitled “Big Science and Technology Projects: Analysis of 30 Selected U.S. Government Projects,” and released on August 24, examines 16 DOE, 11 NASA, and 3 NSF projects, some on-going, some completed, and some cancelled. It looks at their cost and schedule histories, their record of authorizations (if any) and appropriations, and provides a brief summary of their current status and support.
The projects ending in termination all experienced significant increases in their estimated cost. CRS notes that many (although not all) of the cost and schedule overruns were caused by congressional appropriations of less than the full funding needed to keep the program on track. The report finds that “of those projects selected, significant cost increases are associated more frequently with the terminated projects than with the on-going projects. Of the terminated projects, cost increases ranged from a low of about 1.5 times the originally estimated cost to highs of 5.2 times and 8 times. Of the on-going projects, on the other hand, estimated cost increases thus far range from none in several cases to a high of 3.4 times.”
The report concludes that “significant technical, cost, political, foreign policy, and other events following an initial authorization and/or appropriation may overshadow initial congressional support.” It recommends that Congress consider requiring “authorizing legislation for big science and technology projects... However,” it warns, “it would seem inevitable that some big science and technology projects, even with initial congressional and administrative support, will succumb to unforeseen problems and events.”
Below is the CRS summary of LIGO. In parentheses are the expected date of completion, the initial estimated cost, and the current estimated cost. Summaries of selected DOE and NASA projects will be provided in FYIs #161 and #162.
LASER INTERFEROMETER GRAVITATIONAL WAVE OBSERVATORY (FY1999; $340 m federal share; $356 m federal share): “There has been debate in Congress and the scientific community from the beginning concerning the cost of the project.... There has been added congressional concern in that LIGO lacks international collaboration or participation. More central to the debate is the criticism of its having been scaled up from one 40-meter prototype in February 1992 to the current design of two 4-kilometer facilities. Many in the scientific community contend that the more prudent approach would be to pursue aggressive technology development, beginning with the construction of a 200-meter telescope. In its current design, there are questions as to whether or not the objectives of the project are achievable. LIGO is considered to be a high risk experiment, even by many in the physics community.”
The report can be obtained through the offices of your Members of Congress. The Capitol Switchboard number is 202-224-3121.
