Difficult Year for Congress Lies Ahead

Twenty-five days from now President Clinton sends his fiscal year 1995 budget request to Congress, initiating an eight month process leading up to the start of the new fiscal year. All indications point to this being a tough budget year. Constraints governing federal spending are becoming tighter, and there are a number of other factor that could make this year even more difficult. There are a number of major areas to watch. The administration promises action on several issues, primary of which is health care reform. Although not directly related to science spending, the administration is counting on federal health care savings to free-up money for new initiatives.

It seems a fairly safe assumption that among these new initiatives is greater attention to science and technology. How this translates into dollars for fiscal year 1995 is yet to be seen, although the administration, and ultimately Congress, were quite generous with NSF and NIST for fiscal year 1994; somewhat less so for NASA. DOE’s record was mixed: the SSC was terminated, while other general science programs were treated more kindly.

Although health care reform will draw the most attention, the core of congressional activity this year will continue to center around the thirteen appropriations bills which must be passed by October 1. The appropriations committees will not be a happy place this year. A rock hard cap on federal discretionary spending for FY 1995 was passed last year. Discretionary spending, which includes science spending, is just that: spending which can rise and fall.

A few numbers show what the appropriations committees are up against. In fiscal year 1993, budget authority (the amount of money a department can obligate) for all discretionary spending was $535.3 billion. For the current year, this declined to $513.2 billion. For fiscal year 1995, discretionary spending is capped at $517.4 billion -- only $4.2 billion over current spending. While there will be attempts to increase this cap, the betting is that the limit will hold. Liberals and conservatives both agree that this cap is going to be very difficult.

Also on the horizon are at least two other attempts to cut federal spending. The first will be a February 22 vote on a balanced budget amendment. This will have no immediate impact on federal spending, as it would not go into effect until 1999, and would first need to be approved by three-fourths of all states. Another Senate bill would have a more immediate effect: a proposal sponsored by Senators Bob Kerrey (D-Neb.) and Hank Brown (R-Colo.) to cut spending by $109 billion over five years. The House rejected by a narrow margin similar legislation last year. Both bills are opposed by the administration.