WEEK OF NOV 11, 2024

What’s Ahead

Donald Trump speaking at his 2024 election event. — Republican President-elect Donald Trump speaks at the Palm Beach County Convention Center on election night.

Lynne Sladky / AP

Seismic changes ahead for science policy under second Trump presidency

Although science policy was not a focal point of the 2024 campaign, the reelection of Donald Trump as president will have far-reaching consequences for the research enterprise. Among the most imminent changes are that diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives will come under immediate pressure. On day one of his new administration, Trump has pledged to revoke Biden’s executive order prioritizing DEI programs, which science agencies had pointed to as a basis for expanding efforts to diversify the STEM workforce. Trump has also already announced various senior personnel who have an adversarial view toward DEI initiatives, such as Stephen Miller, who will be his deputy chief of staff for policy. Miller’s legal advocacy group issued FOIA requests to various science agencies last month to probe their diversity programs.

Visa policy changes affecting scientists and students could also be in store. Although Trump’s campaign speeches focused on his proposals for curbing illegal immigration, he has also pledged to use visa policy as a tool of research security. In a campaign video on “stopping Chinese espionage,” Trump said he will “impose whatever visa sanctions and travel restrictions are necessary to shut off Chinese access to American secrets.” More broadly, research security is poised to be a topic of intense focus during his administration. Many people Trump has already picked or eyed for top roles are known for having a deep interest in the subject, including Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), who will be his national security advisor; Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), his nominee for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations; and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), reportedly his choice for secretary of state.

The outlook for science budgets is less clear. In his first term Trump prioritized spending on research tied to “industries of the future” but nevertheless proposed sweeping budget cuts to science agencies as part of a broader drive to reduce government spending. Since Trump ultimately did not insist on tight budget caps during the negotiations, Congress rejected his proposals for cuts and was even able to significantly expand some science agencies. Yet Trump appears interested again in cutting government spending, promising to task technology executive Elon Musk with identifying ideas for cuts. Trump may also attempt to roll back some of President Joe Biden’s signature spending initiatives, such as the energy technology subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act and the semiconductor industry subsidies in the CHIPS and Science Act. However, many of the programs created by those acts have bipartisan backing in Congress.

Congress returns with next year front of mind

Congress is back in session this week after a seven-week break for the election. At this point, votes are still being tallied to determine which party will take control of the House when President-elect Donald Trump takes office for a second term in January 2025. It is already clear, however, that Republicans will take control of the Senate, meaning that Trump should be able to get his top political appointees confirmed without Democratic support. Republicans may also push to delay finalizing the fiscal year 2025 budget until Trump takes office, hoping for greater influence over final appropriations. If Republicans take control of both the House and the Senate, Trump can use an expedited process known as reconciliation for certain types of legislation. Republicans may look to strengthen the R&D tax credit available to businesses as part of a broader overhaul of the tax code. The 2017 tax reform law signed by Trump weakened the R&D tax credit, but Republican lawmakers have proposed to reverse that move.

The composition of key congressional committees could look very different next year, with several high-profile changes set to occur. On the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, for example, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) looks likely to take over as chair. Cruz has been highly critical of the Biden administration’s focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion, and recently published a report slamming the National Science Foundation for funding diversity initiatives. The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee will also see new leadership following the retirement of its chair, Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). The committee’s top Republican, Sen. John Barrasso (R-WY), may also depart the panel to serve in a leadership role in his party’s caucus. In the House, the ranking member of the Commerce-Justice-Science Appropriations Subcommittee, Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-PA), lost his seat, as did the chair of the Energy Subcommittee of the House Science Committee, Rep. Brandon Williams (R-NY). On the House Energy-Water Appropriations Subcommittee, ranking member Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) looks set to hang on to her seat despite a very close race, which AP has yet to officially call.

UN progresses proposal to research impact of nuclear war

A UN proposal to research the environmental, physical, and socio-economic consequences of nuclear war passed an initial vote earlier this month. The UN general assembly committee resolution , drafted by Ireland and New Zealand, calls for the creation of an international scientific panel to investigate the potential impact of different nuclear war scenarios. A similar study has not been conducted by the UN since the end of the Cold War, when climatic and scientific modeling were much less advanced than today.

The UK, France, and Russia were the only three countries to vote against the resolution, with the UK Foreign Office stating that the “devastating consequences” of nuclear war are already well known and do not need to be studied further — a posture that has drawn criticism from British anti-nuclear proliferation advocates. A total of 144 UN member states voted in support of the resolution, including China, and 30 member states abstained, including the U.S. The resolution will now go to the full general assembly for a final vote. The National Academies was directed by Congress in 2020 to conduct a similar study on the environmental impact of nuclear war but has not yet published its findings.

AAAS holding events on trust in science

The American Association for the Advancement of Science will host an event Thursday to discuss the release of the latest Trust In Science survey from the Pew Research Center. The past four editions of the survey have reported declines in the number of Americans who view science as having a positive effect on society and increases in the percentage who have a negative view of science. AAAS will also host a meeting of the Science and Human Rights Coalition Thursday and Friday that will focus on “building a culture of trustworthy science.” The event will review “strategies for elevating and promoting science that is civically engaged, and giving scientists the tools, resources, and support they need to carry out that work.”

Also on our radar

The House Oversight and Accountability Committee will hold a hearing Wednesday on unidentified anomalous phenomena, an umbrella term for aerial, undersea, or transmedium objects of unknown origin. The hearing will attempt to shed light on government research programs and findings concerning UAP, according to a press release. Witnesses include Timothy Gallaudet, a naval oceanographer and former acting NOAA administrator, and Michael Gold, a former top NASA official who was a member of a recent NASA study on the topic.
NIH’s Scientific Management Review Board will meet Tuesday for the first time since 2015 to discuss NIH’s mission, structure, and budget. The dormancy of the board was the subject of a probe by House Republicans in 2023.
MIT planetary geophysicist Maria Zuber has replaced former NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine as the chair of NASA’s Mars Sample Return review team. The team’s report recommending a new architecture for the mission is still expected by the end of this year.
British physicist Mark Thomson was selected last week as the next director-general of CERN, Europe’s leading particle physics lab. His term starts in 2026.