Inside the White House Plans for NCAR

Court filings in a lawsuit over the National Center for Atmospheric Research provide a clearer picture of the administration’s ideas to eliminate or transfer major components of the research center and confirm that agency staff discussed the plans in detail without considering public input. The judge in the case temporarily blocked the transfer of one major NCAR component on June 1, but it remains unclear whether the White House will continue to pursue other avenues to “break up” NCAR.

Though White House’s intent to break up NCAR was not publicly reported until Dec. 16, Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought approved the decision to do so as early as November, according to a draft internal memo. OMB staff exchanged details on the plan for NCAR on Dec. 17. These include “taking action against” climate change research at NCAR’s Climate and Global Dynamics Lab (CGD) and Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling (ACOM) program, as well as transferring major infrastructure to operators other than NCAR.

The National Science Foundation, which funds NCAR, issued a Dear Colleague Letter a month later asking for public comment on various scientific activities and one of the buildings at NCAR. Few decisions have since been announced regarding NCAR’s future. NSF declined to comment on its plan to restructure NCAR or the proposals shared in the OMB emails.

OMB has attempted to draw a clear line between NCAR’s weather and climate work, with an eye toward discarding the latter. Vought’s announcement states that NCAR is “one of the largest sources of climate alarmism in the country” and that any of its “vital activities,” such as weather research, would be moved to other entities or locations. The draft memo states that a key component of reforming NCAR is to “rescope” its research and modeling to focus on weather instead of climate modeling. According to the court documents, NSF leadership has privately stated “concerns that NCAR in its current form may be too large and complex to be nimble in responding to changing agency and administration priorities.”

However, the documents also reveal cases where that distinction is not so straightforward. One email from an OMB staffer includes ACOM in a list of “policy aligned functions” because its research relates to weather, fire weather, and water modeling. In a reply, a different staffer states that OMB is instead “taking action against” ACOM because it “investigates greenhouse gases and other chemical processes related to climate change, which informs regulations on emissions that the administration does not support.”

Labs to eliminate or transfer

The OMB emails propose “taking action against” ACOM and against climate change research at CGD, which studies climate variability, long-term climate change, and the role of human activities in global warming, one OMB email states. “This work directly supports international agreements like the Paris Accord which this administration does not support,” it adds.

The email does not specify how the administration plans to take action against these labs. Though it criticizes the labs’ climate research, it is unclear whether the administration would maintain some parts of the labs, “rescope” their work, or eliminate them entirely.

The email says Vought intends to close Mesa Lab, which currently houses CGD. NSF requested expressions of interest from other public or private users to take over the building in its Dear Colleague Letter.

Another OMB email, also sent Dec. 17, suggests “transitioning” CGD, as well as the Earth Observing Lab (EOL) and the Education, Engagement, and Early-Career Development program, “to better-aligned university programs across the country,” indicating that these functions would be moved out of NCAR. However, the same email lists ACOM as a “policy aligned function” supporting weather research.

Infrastructure to transfer

The emails express OMB’s intent to maintain major equipment and infrastructure as part of a new Energy-Water Security Initiative at NSF, but transfer them to a different operator than NCAR. These include the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center in Wyoming, two research aircraft, and the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory in Hawaii.

In February, NSF officials told the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research — NCAR’s operating organization — that the agency would transfer the NWSC from UCAR to the University of Wyoming. UCAR’s lawsuit aims to block the transfer, among other administration decisions that have negatively affected NCAR. The OMB emails from Dec. 17 already propose transferring the NWSC to the University of Wyoming, the same day NSF said it was “exploring options” to do so. One email states that the supercomputer “is an asset that NSF will continue to fund,” but that the administration “will refocus its work away from climate.” The June 1 preliminary injunction temporarily blocked this transfer, and the judge still needs to decide whether NSF can ultimately go through with it.

NSF’s Dec. 17 announcement also said NSF is considering divesting of or transferring two research aircraft to another federal agency. Both aircraft are currently housed at and managed by EOL, which one of the OMB emails suggests transitioning to a university program. The email adds that the two aircraft, as well as another NCAR aircraft that is managed by the University of Wyoming, could be transitioned to a fleet of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, such as the hurricane hunter fleet. Subsequent emails only refer to the two EOL aircraft. Science reported in March that NOAA or NASA is expected to take over the two aircraft.

According to one email, NOAA sent OMB a list of NCAR functions that could potentially move out of NSF to NOAA or to university programs. The email does not provide further information on what functions the list included.

The OMB emails also state that NSF will continue to support the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, citing its importance for space weather research, but will transfer it to a new managing entity. NCAR’s High Altitude Observatory (HAO) manages the Mauna Loa Solar Observatory, so it is unclear whether OMB intends to maintain HAO.

Labs to keep

In an email to NSF acting Director Brian Stone, one OMB official provided a list of NCAR functions that “can be defended” as supporting the Energy-Water Security Initiative proposed in NSF’s budget request for fiscal year 2027. These include the Research Applications Lab, the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Lab, and the Computational and Information Systems Lab, because they focus on water forecasting and AI and other computing tools. The list also includes several other computing and modeling functions, including the NWSC supercomputer.

The administration proposed $100 million for NSF and $75 million for the Department of Energy for the Energy-Water Security Initiative to “reduce vulnerabilities where water-related issues threaten reliable energy production.” The funding for the initiative will depend on congressional appropriations: the House proposals for NSF and DOE do not include funding amounts for this initiative and the Senate has yet to release its proposals.