Using simulations to predict future disease outbreaks

The Zika virus, named for the forest in Uganda in which it was first discovered, spreads through mosquitoes and often has only mild symptoms. However, in pregnant women Zika can prevent fetal brain formation, resulting in a deadly congenital disability.

Alfwzan et al. developed a numerical model to guide public health response to Zika outbreaks. Using the simulation, they can better understand the disease dynamics, test different strategies, and investigate multiple scenarios.

“Developing a model for Zika virus transmission is a complex and interdisciplinary task that requires collaboration between epidemiologists, entomologists, mathematicians, and public health experts,” said author Ali Raza. “The model’s success depends on carefully considering these factors and the continuous refinement of the model as new data and insights become available.”

Their computer-based tool simulates virus spread based on input information about the virus, population, and environment. Though this model is finely tuned to Zika, the principles and development of disease modeling can be applied to other infectious diseases.

“The model generates an output that helps researchers and public health officials make informed decisions about how to respond to outbreaks, allocate resources, and develop strategies for prevention and control,” Raza said. “Essentially, it’s a way to explore different scenarios and test strategies without risking the health of real populations.”

The researchers will continuously adjust their model, equipping it with the best data about the Zika virus and its behavior.

Source: “Modeling and transmission dynamics of zika virus through efficient numerical method,” by Wafa Alfwzan, Ali Raza, Jesus Martin-Vaquero, Dumitru Baleanu, Muhammad Rafiq, Nauman Ahmed, and Zafar Iqbal, AIP Advances (2023). The article can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0168945 .