Estimated Decline in New Graduate Physics Program Enrollments, Fall 2025

Preliminary data from our 2025 Enrollments and Degrees Survey point to a significant decline in first-year graduate enrollments in physics programs:

• First-year enrollment in graduate physics programs is estimated to have declined by 7–9%, a notable reversal after several years of growth, and comparable in scale to the COVID–19–related enrollment declines from 2020–2021.
• Funding pressures are a major driver: among graduate physics programs that intentionally planned to enroll fewer students in 2025 than in 2024, over half cited loss of federal funding or uncertainty about future funding as a key reason.
• Visa disruptions significantly affected international students who were accepted into graduate physics programs:
  
  • Over half of the responding physics departments had at least one admitted student who accepted their offer but did not enroll.
    
    • Among these, 88% experienced non-arrivals by non-US citizens, primarily due to visa delays or denials.
    • 34% reported non-arrivals among US citizens.
• All estimates are preliminary, based on incomplete but carefully imputed data using a validated random forest method, with 60% of departments with graduate programs in physics having responded. We will publish our Roster of Physics Departments in late summer/early fall annually. The next Roster will provide the final data for 2025.

Background

In April, we projected a decline of about 13% among first-year graduate students in physics and astronomy. At that time, chairpersons felt that restrictions on federal grant funding would be a major factor in the decline. Over the summer, the Trump administration paused new student visa interviews in May , resulting in lengthy application backlogs. This could further inhibit the number of graduate students enrolling in US programs. We now have preliminary data from our annual survey of physics departments, allowing us to examine that projection.

Our estimates for physics programs

Based upon preliminary findings from our annual Enrollments and Degrees Survey of degree-granting physics departments, we estimate that fall 2025 first-year graduate student enrollment will decrease by approximately 7 to 9% from the previous year. The data are depicted in Figure 1. The estimated data is shown with a horizontal line at the point estimate and the uncertainty demonstrated by the vertical bars. This decline is similar in scale to that of 2020.

Figure 1

Number of First-Year Graduate Students in Physics Departments, Fall 2015 – Fall 2025*

There was a large increase in the number of non-US citizens in 2021 following the decline in 2020. The decline in 2020 and rebound in 2021 were largely due to travel restrictions, and easing of them, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Unlike 2021, most chairs believe the decline in enrollment, both among US citizens and non-US citizens, will continue, and be even larger, in 2026.

Understanding the source of the decline

We also have preliminary results from a series of questions directed to chairpersons of graduate physics programs about their fall 2025 first-year graduate student enrollments. Departments were asked about two factors that may have influenced our current predictions of a decline in first-year enrollments: (1) what was their intention concerning the number of first-year students they planned to enroll in the fall of 2025, and (2) whether students who had accepted offers of admission ultimately did not enroll.

Thirty percent of physics graduate programs reported that they planned to enroll fewer first-year students in the fall of 2025 than they did in the fall of 2024. About half of the departments planned to enroll a similar number of students, and 16% planned to enroll more. Departments that planned to enroll fewer students were asked what influenced that decision, with some departments citing more than one factor. Over half of the departments planning to enroll fewer students pointed to a loss of federal funding or uncertainty about future funding. About 40% reported restrictions or limits imposed by their university, and about a quarter cited other reasons.

The second factor that could contribute to declining first-year enrollments is the number of students who were expected to arrive for fall 2025 but did not. Over half (54%) of physics graduate programs reported that one or more students who had accepted offers of admission did not enroll in the fall 2025 semester. We do not have comparable figures from previous years, so we cannot determine whether this represents a change from past patterns. Among departments that reported at least one student not enrolling, 88% said that one or more non-US citizens did not arrive as expected and 34% reported that one or more US citizens did not arrive.

Reasons given for non-enrollment varied. Some departments cited funding issues and typical deferments, as well as students choosing to attend other universities. The predominant reason for non-US students not arriving was attributed to difficulty obtaining visas. Most of these students were granted deferments until fall 2026; however, it is hard to predict what the visa situation will be next fall. Therefore, it is unclear whether we will see a rebound in 2026 that resembles the one in 2021.

Methodology

We employed random forest imputation to estimate the number of first-year graduate students for non-responding or incomplete responses from physics departments. We utilized department and institutional characteristics, as well as data from the 2023 and 2024 Enrollments and Degrees surveys. In our preparation for using this machine learning technique, we conducted several trials using known data to evaluate the process and accuracy of the output. Using only complete data from the 2024 Enrollments and Degrees survey, we removed increasingly larger percentages of the data (up to 60% removed) based on the response date. The departments that responded later in the data collection cycle were removed first. With 50% of the data removed, the outputs from each of our imputed variables fell within ±5% of their actual known value. The number of first-year and overall graduate students came very close to their known values in the trial, usually within ±1% of the true value. Throughout the data collection cycle, departments with irregular input are contacted and asked to confirm their numbers. It is critical to note that several rounds of data cleaning and verification are performed on each year’s enrollments and degree data; however, not all checks have been completed on the data collected for this cycle. At present, the imputations have been completed with 60% of the departments providing their fall of 2025 enrollments. These numbers should be used as preliminary estimates only.

References

Impacts of Restrictions on Federal Grant Funding in Physics and Astronomy Graduate Programs, Susan White, Trevor Owens, and Patrick Mulvey, April 2025, https://doi.org/10.1063/sr.d8c0de7d2e

Suspension of Visa Issuance to Foreign Nationals to Protect the United States from Foreign Terrorists and other National Security and Public Safety Threats, US Department of State, June 7, 2025, https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/News/visas-news/suspension-of-visa-issuance-to-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-united-states-from-foreign-terrorists-and-other-national-security-and-public-safety-threats.html , accessed November 17, 2025